10 things to remember about refugee statistics! - 27/1/2010
| Keywords: refugee, statistics, desicions, UKBA |
I am quite often asked 'what percentage of asylum seekers become refugees?' When I start to answer, I think most people wish they hadn’t asked! Here are 10 key things to remember about refugee decision rate statistics: 1 The Home Office produce regular statistics which show decision rates. The annual statistics are published in August of the following year, (e.g. 2008 statistics published in August 2009). There are also quarterly statistics. All are available at www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/immigration-asylum-stats.html 2 There are two completely different sets of statistics for decision rates:
3 Different stages of the process have different decision rates:
4 There are two ‘statuses’ of refugees (those receiving ‘positive decisions’) in the Home Office statistics:
5 The statistics don’t include Case Resolution as the Home Office do not classify them as ‘refugees’ in their statistics. Nearly everyone else counts them as ‘refugees’, but the official statistics do not allow us to use these statistics comparably. 6 There are three broad outcomes in the statistics:
7 The latest statistics are normally wrong! As appeals are still being processed, the final decision rates (year that application was made) are ‘provisional’ figures, and are consistently underestimated by the Home Office. For example, the rate of positive 'final decisions' from those applications made in 2006 keeps going up depending on when you look at it over the last three years – 26.4%, 30.9%, 31.1%. 8 The Home Office often uses the lowest refugee figures in press releases! For example: 'the latest statistics show that 79 per cent of asylum seekers did not qualify for international protection. We expect these people to return home' (Phil Woolas, Home Office Press Release, December 2009). Only a poor prediction would lead to this expectation, as the number receiving final negative decisions will actually be about 60% (and some of those will be unable to return home!). 9 National statistics are different to local statistics. The proportion of positive decisions locally is higher than the national statistics. This is because the national statistics include those who immediately go through ‘fast-track’ detention and are extremely unlikely to become refugees. Therefore the proportion of non-detained (and usually dispersed) asylum seekers becoming refugees is higher than the total national average. 10 No data is kept on refugees after their decision. We cannot really track refugees or know exactly where they are after their decision, as they are no longer monitored and are treated like all other people living in the UK. I hope that you’re still with me and it all makes sense! I am currently writing a report, which will show these different statistics in more detail, and as I’m sure you can imagine it is no easy task! But finally, in response to the question posed at the beginning – my simple answer is that between 30 and 40 per cent of recent asylum seekers nationally become refugees. |
| Posted on 27/1/2010 by Dave |
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Gosh, complicated! I usually get annual stats from the ONS Annual Migration Report which has a graph on p11 showing quite a significant decline in asylum applications since 1999, down from about 70,000 to under 30,000 in 2008. What is the explanation for this? Is it because our rules are stricter now? Posted on 08 February 2010 by Wormlady |
An interesting post, Dave. The public policy challenge is that if between 60% and 70% are not entitled to remain on humanitarian grounds, how can they be returned in a manner which is humane, just, proportionate and effective? Nobody really seems to have really developed an end of process which works. Posted on 08 February 2010 by John Donegan |
@Wormlady
The reasons for these changes are simply war, conflict and repressive regimes around the world. However, the UK’s proportion of asylum seekers has also decreased slightly more than some other countries and this is thought to be because of stricter ‘pre-entry controls’ which means stopping people before they get into the UK to claim asylum. There are very different opinions on whether this is a ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ thing to do! There is no evidence that being tougher on asylum seekers who are in the UK has any effect on the number of applications. Posted on 08 February 2010 by Dave |
@John Donegan People claiming asylum before 5th March 2007 are included in the Case Resolution Programme and the proportion of them who are entitled to remain will end up being much higher than the 30 - 40 % for recent asylum seekers. My prediction is that as a result of Case Resolution there will be only a very small number of these cases who still need to be removed, as most will be ‘concluded’ either as positive decisions, or in the slightly mysterious ‘other’ category. No-one has yet been able to combine all these statistics and estimate total numbers, but I’m working on it…
Posted on 09 February 2010 by Dave |
Page last updated:05 March 2010
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